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January 27, 2006
Bush’s Approval Ratings Stalled at 41%;
Americans Have Contradictory Illegal Immigration Views
By Mark Schulman and Tara Regan
President Bush heads into his State of the Union address next week with his job approval mired at 41% approve - 55% disapprove, little changed from late November (41% - 53%), when Bush started his vigorous counter-offensive against his critics on Iraq.
The latest national Time Poll of 1,002 adults, conducted January 24 - January 26, finds the President’s approval rating off 12 points from this time last year.
Cutting into the President’s approval:
- Almost two-thirds of Americans (63%) still see the country going down the wrong track, up three points from late November (60% wrong track).
- Two in three (64%) disapprove of the job that President Bush is doing to keep the cost of government down.
- Bush continues to have negative approval ratings with regard to his handling of illegal immigration (61% disapprove - 24% approve) the economy (56% - 39%) and the situation in Iraq (60% - 38%).
- 60% disapprove of his handling of the war in Iraq, unchanged since late November.
- About half (51%) of Americans say it was wrong to go to war with Iraq, with 44% saying it was right - little changed over the past year.
Bush Terrorism Numbers Down
The President has lost ground even in his traditional strongholds:
- Handling the war on terrorism (48% disapprove - 47% approve) with approval down 9 points from last January.
- In the "red" states, that is the states responsible for Bush’s 2004 re-election, his approval rating is split at 48% approve - 48% disapprove.
- Although Bush’s approval among Republicans remains steady at 79% approve - 18% disapprove, the President receives negative ratings from his party in handling of the illegal immigrant problem (49% disapprove - 37% approve) and split ratings on keeping the cost of government down (47% approve - 45% disapprove).
| 1/24-1/26 | Total (%) |
Republican (%) |
Democrat (%) |
Independent (%) |
Red States (%) |
Blue States (%) |
| Approve | ||||||
| Disapprove | ||||||
| Don't Know | ||||||
Congressional Corruption Scandal: Both Parties Faulted
Jack Abramoff’s recent guilty plea to federal charges of conspiracy and tax evasion has not yet captured
much public attention, with a majority (57%) saying they have not been following the case closely. A
little more than 2-in-5 Americans (43%) say they have been following the case either "very" (11%) or
"somewhat" (31%) closely.
Democrats have gotten little partisan advantage thus far on the corruption issue:
- most Americans (74%), think both parties in Congress are equally to blame,
- only 14% think corruption is a bigger problem among Republicans, with 7% saying it is a bigger problem among Democrats.
The poll finds some partisan finger-pointing:
- Democrats are more likely to think corruption is a bigger problem among Republicans (32%) than Democrats (1%).
- Similarly but to a lesser degree, Republicans say corruption is a bigger issue for Democrats (18%) than Republicans (2%).
Immigration Policy: Contradictions and Nuances
President Bush faces steep negative ratings on his handling of illegal immigration (61% disapprove - 24%
approve) as he pushes for immigration reform in the coming months. While discontent with current policy
is high, Americans offer no clear blueprint for dealing with the problem.
On one hand, most Americans favor tougher enforcement of border security and major penalties for hiring illegal immigrants:
- Almost two-thirds (64%) say that illegal immigration is a very serious problem in the United States and a majority believe the U.S. is not doing enough to secure its borders (74%).
- About three-quarters (74%) favor providing and enforcing major penalties to employers convicted of hiring illegal immigrants.
- A majority (55%) think the U.S. would be "better off" by deporting all illegal immigrants and toughening security at the borders compared to about one-third (35%) who think the U.S. would be "worse off."
Favor Guest Worker Program
Yet, at the same time, most Americans would approve of the President’s proposed guest worker program and
would even allow illegal immigrants to gain citizenship under certain circumstances.
- Most (73%) favor a guest worker program for illegal immigrants, with a quarter (23%) opposing. The public is split though on whether they should be eligible to register for the program in the U.S. (50%) or have to return to their home countries to apply (46%).
- About two-thirds (64%) favor granting temporary visas to immigrants not currently in the United States to do seasonal or temporary work here and then return to their own countries;
- About 3-in-4 (76%) favor allowing illegal immigrants in the U.S., citizenship if they learn English, have a job and pay taxes;
- A majority (56%) think illegal immigrants are taking jobs that U.S. citizens do not want or cannot do.
Partisanship and Geography Differences
Complicating the issue further, are partisan and geographic differences:
- Republicans more than Democrats believe illegal immigration is a very serious problem (75% - 56%), as do Southerners (73%) and white, born-again Christians (77%).
- Republicans are more in favor than Democrats of providing and enforcing major penalties for employers convicted of hiring illegals (82% - 68%), stopping illegals at the border from entering the U.S. by whatever steps necessary (72% - 46%) and deporting all illegals back to their home countries (62% - 45%).
- Those who live in the South and Midwest are more likely to say that illegal immigrants take jobs from U.S. citizens (46% and 39% respectively) than those who live in the Northeast (31%) and West (22%).
| % Favor | Total (%) |
Republican (%) |
Democrat (%) |
Northeast (%) |
Midwest (%) |
South (%) |
West (%) |
| Allowing illegal immigrants in the US, citizenship if they learn English, have a job and pay taxes | |||||||
| Providing and enforcing penalties for employers convicted of hiring illegal immigrants | |||||||
| Allowing illegal immigrants to register as guest workers | |||||||
| Granting temporary visas to immigrants not in the US so they can do seasonal/temporary work and return to home countries | |||||||
| Stopping illegal immigrants from entering the US by taking whatever steps necessary to guard the border | |||||||
| Deporting all illegal immigrants | |||||||
Concerns about Illegal Immigration
The biggest concern for Americans regarding illegal immigration is the drain on taxpayers' dollars to
provide services such as health care and education to them (62% "very concerned"). This concern is
heightened among Republicans (74%) and Southerners (70%). Other major concerns about illegal immigrants
are that they:
- increase the likelihood of terrorism in the U.S. (47% very concerned);
- keep wages low for American workers (47%);
- increase the amount of crime (42%);
- take jobs away from Americans (38%);
- overcrowd the country, with too many people in the U.S. (35%) now.
| % Very Concerned | Total (%) |
Republican (%) |
Democrat (%) |
Independent (%) |
||
| Costs taxpayers too much money to provide them with services | ||||||
| They increase the likelihood of terrorism in the U.S. | ||||||
| American workers can't afford to work for the same low wages as illegal immigrants | ||||||
| They increase the amount of crime | ||||||
| They take jobs away from Americans | ||||||
| There are too many people in the U.S. | ||||||
Personal Experiences with Illegal Immigrants: Generally Positive
Almost two-thirds (64%) say they have been in contact with or have seen people that they suspect are illegal immigrants.
- 14% report hiring a contractor or a company which may have employed illegal immigrants.
- 5% report having personally hired workers such as housekeepers and landscapers who were suspected illegal immigrants.
- 17% say that they have personally paid less for items or services in their community because of low-wage illegal immigrant labor.
A majority (61%) of those who had contact with illegal immigrants described their personal experience as positive. Only about 1 in 4 (26%) described their experience as negative. About 13% said they were unsure or had mixed experiences.
Democrats (67%), those living in the West (74%) and those who have reported hiring suspected illegal immigrants (73%) describe more favorable personal experiences with illegal immigrants than their counterparts.
with Illegal Immigrants Base: Have Had Personal Experience with Illegal Immigrants |
|||||||
Total (%) |
Republican (%) |
Democrat (%) |
Northeast (%) |
Midwest (%) |
South (%) |
West (%) |
|
| Positive | |||||||
| Negative | |||||||
| Both/Neither/Mixed | |||||||
| Don't know | |||||||
Day Laborers and Pick-up Spots
Americans are split on whether illegal immigrants who are day laborers should be allowed to gather in
public places, waiting to be picked up by employers:
- Half (50%) think that illegal immigrants should not be allowed to gather in public places waiting, while 43% think they should.
- Almost three-in-five (58%) think communities should set up officially sanctioned day labor pick-up sites where workers, either illegal immigrants or not, could gather and wait for work. A little more than one-third (36%) oppose this idea.
Few Think Reality TV Is Really Real
About 2-in-5 (41%) say they watch reality TV programs either "frequently" (20%) or sometimes (21%)
with many (59%) watching reality TV programs either "rarely" (21%) or never (37%).
Is It Real?
About one-quarter (25%) think that reality TV programs are "completely made-up" with about one-third
(33%) saying they are "not very close to what happened at all." About three-in-ten (29%) think they are
"largely what happened with a bit of editing." About 3% believe reality TV programs are completely "real."
Does It Matter?
Fortunately for reality TV producers, about half (49%) do not think the "reality" in reality TV
programming is at all important since it is just entertainment. About one-quarter (25%) think it is
somewhat important for these programs to be "real" since they like real stories. A little less than
one-in-five (17%) think it is very important to "keep it real" or why should they bother to watch.
Methodology
This Time Magazine poll was conducted by telephone between January 24 and
January 26, 2006 among a national random sample of 1,002 adults, age 18 and older throughout America.
The margin of error for the entire sample is approximately +/- 3 percentage points. The margin
of error is higher for subgroups. Surveys are subject to other error sources as well, including
sampling coverage error, recording error, and respondent error.
Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs designed the survey and conducted all
interviewing. The full Time questionnaire and trend data may be found in the related link below.
Related Link
