April 10, 2007

Edwards' Momentum Continues/Giuliani Still Leads Among Republicans

Romney's Name Recognition Increases, Yet Few Know Much about Him

Bush Approval Rating Mired at 33%, Unchanged Since Troop Surge

By Mark Schulman and Tara Regan

Although Hillary Clinton continues to lead the pack for the Democratic nomination, she faces continued pressure not only from Barack Obama but also now from John Edwards, whose momentum from late March continues in early April, according to the latest Time Poll of registered voters.

When registered Democrats were asked to choose among just Clinton, Obama and Edwards for the party's nomination, Clinton now has a 7 point lead over Obama, unchanged from late March's eight point edge, with Edwards now virtually tied with Obama (33% Clinton vs. 26% Obama vs. 25% Edwards). Edwards has further narrowed the margin between Obama from 4 points in late March to 1 point in early April.

When asked who their second choice would be for the Democratic nomination, Obama leads with 35%, followed by Clinton (30%) and Edwards (26%).

Giuliani Continues to Lead Among Republicans
Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani continues to hold a double-digit lead over John McCain, the next closest Republican candidate. When registered Republicans are asked to choose among McCain, Giuliani, Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich or Fred Thompson for the nomination, Giuliani holds a 15 point lead over McCain with Gingrich, Romney and Thompson continuing to trail behind (35% Giuliani vs. 20% McCain vs. 11% Gingrich vs. 10% Romney and 10% Thompson).

When asked for a second choice for the Republican nomination McCain and Giuliani are on top at 22% and 21% respectively. Behind them are Gingrich (15%), Romney (14%) and Thompson (9%).

Trial Heats: Giuliani and McCain Edge Clinton, Giuliani and Obama Dead Heat
Almost 2-in-3 registered voters (65% - 23%) predict that a Democratic Party candidate will most likely win the 2008 Presidential election. Yet recent trial heats indicate much closer races ahead.

In a trial-heat against Clinton, Giuliani's lead has narrowed over the New York Senator to 5 points (48% - 43%), down from 9 points in late-March. Giuliani faces an even tighter race against Barack Obama, 45% Giuliani vs. 45% Obama, little changed from 2 weeks ago (44% Obama vs. 45% Giuliani).

• Giuliani's recent edge over Clinton among Independents has diminished from +23 point Giuliani advantage in late March to +1 Clinton advantage (44% Clinton - 43% Giuliani).

McCain has a 2 point lead over Clinton -- 46% - 44%, a virtual tie -- down 48% - 42% in late March. Obama now edges out McCain (47% Obama - 42% McCain) erasing a non-significant 2 point McCain lead from late March.

In a trial-heat against Mitt Romney, Clinton has a 12 point lead over the former Governor of Massachusetts (49% - 37%) down from a 17 point lead 2 weeks ago. Barack Obama has an even greater margin over Romney with a 23 point lead (54% - 31%), little changed in the last 2 weeks. While Romney topped the Republican field in fund raising thus far, he still suffers from low awareness, discussed below.

Democrats are Slightly More Satisfied than Republicans with Candidates
About 7-in-10 (71%) registered Democrats say they are satisfied with their Party's leading candidates running for the Democratic nomination. Slightly fewer (61%) Republicans say they are satisfied with the leading Republican Presidential candidates.

• About one-in-five (20%) registered Democrats are dissatisfied with their candidates, while almost 3-in-10 (28%) registered Republicans are dissatisfied.

Edwards and Obama Cut into Clinton Strongholds
Among a shortened candidate list, Hillary Clinton's core strength in the Northeast has decreased from a +22 point margin 2 weeks ago to an +11 point margin in early April (34% Clinton - 23% Edwards - 22% Obama).

• John Edwards now leads in the Midwest (36% Edwards - 31% Clinton - 23% Obama) flipping a 3 point Clinton lead 2 weeks ago.

• Clinton continues to have a slight edge over Obama in the South (35% Clinton - 29% Obama - 21% Edwards) and a much tighter race with the Illinois Senator in the West (32% Clinton - 30% Obama - 22% Edwards).

• Clinton continues to have a strong lead among women (38% Clinton - 24% Edwards - 23% Obama), while Obama has taken a slight lead among men (30% Obama - 27% Clinton - 26% Edwards).

Q6. What if your choices for the Democratic nomination were just Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards, which one would you vote for if you had to decide today?
Base: Registered Democrat/Lean Democrat, Sampling Error +/- 7 points
	Total (%)	Northeast (%)	Mid-West (%)	South (%)	West (%)	Male (%)	Female (%)
Hillary Rodham Clinton	33	34	31	35	32	27	38
Barack Obama	26	22	23	29	30	30	23
John Edwards	25	23	36	21	22	26	24

GOP Nomination: Giuliani and McCain Still Top Republican Front Runners
Among a shortened list of Republican candidates, Giuliani holds a double digit (+15 point) lead over John McCain, his closest competitor for the Republican nomination:

• Among the remaining candidates, Gingrich (11%), Romney (10%) and Fred Thompson (10%) are the only ones to register much at this point.

• Giuliani has a 10 point lead over McCain among white Born Again Christian registered voters (29% Giuliani - 19% McCain - 16% Gingrich - 12% Fred Thompson - 9% Romney).

Q5. If your choices for the Republican nomination were just McCain, Romney, Giuliani, Gingrich and Thompson which would you vote for?
Base: Republican/Lean Republican
	Total (%)
Rudy Giuliani	35
John McCain	20
Newt Gingrich	11
Mitt Romney	10
Fred Thompson	10

GOP Fund-Raising Leader Romney Suffers From Low Awareness, but Name Recognition Is Increasing
Although Romney still suffers from low awareness among registered voters, his name recognition is increasing. Although about one-quarter (23%) say they have never heard of him, this has decreased from 58% in late January. About 2-in-5 (39%) say they know either "a great deal" (11%) or "some" (28%) about Romney, an increase from 35% 2 weeks ago and 17% in late January.

• Almost one-quarter (24%) say they will "definitely" or "probably" support Romney's Presidential candidacy. This puts him in the middle of the pack behind front runners Obama (48% definitely/probably support); Giuliani (48%); Clinton (46%); Gore (45%); Edwards (45%) and McCain (44%).

• Although almost 2-in-3 (65%) registered voters say it makes "no difference" if a candidate is a Mormon, about 3-in-10 (28%) say it would make them "less likely" to support a candidate. Mitt Romney is a member of the Church of Latter Day Saints, or Mormons.

• Although Romney's name recognition has improved, many registered voters still know little about Romney and his positions. When read a list of attributes, about half "didn't know" if each accurately described Romney or not.

Bush Approval Rating: No Movement Since Iraq Troop Surge
President Bush's approval rating continues to be mired at 33% approve - 59% disapprove, little changed since the start of the year.

Methodology

This Time Magazine poll was conducted by telephone between April 5-9, 2007 among a national random sample of 1,281 adults, resulting in 1,102 registered voters, age 18 and older throughout America. The data have been weighted to reflect the demographic composition of adult Americans.

The margin of error for the entire sample is approximately +/- 3 percentage points. The margin of error is higher for subgroups, for example, the margin of error for Democrats and Democratic-leaning voters and Republicans and Republican-leaning voters in the primaries is approximately +/- 4 percentage points. Surveys are subject to other error sources as well, including sampling coverage error, recording error, and respondent error. Turnout in primary elections and caucuses tends to be low, with polls at this stage not identifying likely primary/caucus voters.

The Poll's partisan breakdown is as follows:

     35% Democrat
     30% Republican
     26% Independent

Registered Republicans include those who self-identify as Republicans or say they lean Republican (437 adults). Registered Democrats include those who self-identify as Democrats or say they lean Democratic (493 adults).

Schulman, Ronca, & Bucuvalas (SRBI) Public Affairs designed the survey and conducted all interviewing. The full Time questionnaire and trend data may be found in the related link below.

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Related Link

• Time Magazine/SRBI Survey Questionnaire and Frequencies