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August 29, 2007
Edwards Tops Iowa Democratic Caucus Field;
Race Still Wide Open
By Mark Schulman
The national polls show a widening lead for Hillary Clinton for the 2008 Democratic nomination. However, Iowa Democratic caucus goers, who will provide the first real test, give John Edwards a five point edge over Hillary Clinton, 29% - 24%, with Barack Obama virtually tied with Clinton at 22%.
This latest Time Magazine Poll of 519 likely Iowa Democratic caucus goers finds that, among the so-called "second-tier" candidates, Bill Richardson has 11%, with Joe Biden at 5%, Dennis Kucinich with 2%, and Chris Dodd at 1%. The Poll was conducted August 22 - 25, 2007. Horse-race numbers include "leaners."
|
Iowa Democratic Caucus-Goers Candidate Choice, with Leaners |
||
| (%) | ||
| John Edwards | 29 | |
| Hillary Clinton | 24 | |
| Barack Obama | 22 | |
| Bill Richardson | 11 | |
| Joe Biden | 5 | |
| Chris Dodd | 1 | |
| Dennis Kucinich | 2 | |
| Mike Gravel | * | |
| Other | * | |
| Uncommitted/ No Answer/ Don't know |
6 | |
Edwards Lead Widens in Narrowed Field
When the field was limited to just the top four candidates, Edwards' lead over Clinton widened to 32% - 24%. Obama was at 22%, with Bill Richardson at 13%.
| Narrowed Field: Edwards, Clinton, Obama, Richardson | ||
| Total (%) | ||
| John Edwards | 32 | |
| Hillary Clinton | 24 | |
| Barack Obama | 22 | |
| Bill Richardson | 13 | |
| Other | 2 | |
| Uncommitted/ No Answer/ Don't know |
7 | |
Race Still Wide-Open
With the Hawkeye caucus still probably more than four months away, the caucus race remains far from settled. About half of likely caucus goers currently supporting a candidate (46%) say that they still might change their minds.
- Most Democratic caucus goers, 85%, are "satisfied" with the leading candidates in the race. Only 12% are dissatisfied.
Edwards Most Likeable; Clinton's Leadership Strongest; Obama Takes on Special Interests
One reason the race remains fluid is that Iowa caucus goers see strengths and weaknesses in each candidate. Among the top four candidates:
- Likeability: Edwards (32%) and Obama (30%) lead as "most likeable." Clinton finishes last, at 12%, just below Bill Richardson (16%).
- Strongest Leadership: Clinton holds a commanding lead over second-ranked Edwards, 36% - 23%, with Obama at 20%. Richardson (9%) trails the pack.
- Taking on special interests: Obama dominates the "change in Washington" category, holding a 10 point lead over Edwards, 35% - 25%. Clinton finishes third, at 19%, with Richardson at 7%.
- Handling of Iraq: Clinton (27%) leads Obama (19%), Edwards (18%) and Richardson (16%).
- Protecting Against Terrorism: Clinton leads the field by a wide margin, picked by 27%, compared to Edwards, at 19%, Obama at 15%, and Richardson at 14%.
| Best Describes Which Candidate? | |||||
| Hillary Clinton (%) |
Barack Obama (%) |
John Edwards (%) |
Bill Richardson (%) |
||
| Is the most likeable? | 12 | 30 | 32 | 16 | |
| Has the best chance of winning the 2008 Presidential Election? |
39 | 19 | 23 | 5 | |
| Best understands the concerns of people like myself? |
23 | 27 | 30 | 10 | |
| Would best protect the US against terrorism? | 27 | 15 | 19 | 14 | |
| Best able to handle problems here in our country? |
30 | 19 | 27 | 14 | |
| Would best handle the situation in Iraq? | 27 | 19 | 18 | 16 | |
| Would provide the strongest leadership? | 36 | 20 | 23 | 9 | |
| Will take on special interests in Washington? | 19 | 35 | 25 | 7 | |
Voter Profiles: No Gender Gap
The Time Iowa Poll finds some differences in candidate support by demographics. However, the female vote is split almost evenly among Edwards (27%), Clinton (25%), and Obama (23%). Among other groupings:
- White born-agains support Edwards 39% - 25% over Clinton, with Obama getting 21%.
- Rural Iowa Democrats favor Edwards over Clinton, 39% - 25%, with Obama at only 14%.
- Democrats in large metropolitan areas split almost evenly among the three leading candidates, with each getting about a quarter of the vote.
- The three leading candidates split the support of union households, with Edwards at 32%, Clinton at 26%, and Obama at 25%.
Iraq Top Issue but Not Only Issue
Iraq tops the list of issues important to caucus-goers in choosing a candidate. When asked to select the two top issues among six, 45% picked Iraq. Health care was second, at 36%, while strong leadership (31%) and "economic fairness for all Americans" (30%) tied for third. One in four (25%) also selected "has the best chance of beating the Republicans in 2008."
- Perhaps reflecting Edwards' populist themes, "economic fairness" tied with health care, 35% each) as the second most major issue for Edwards supporters.
- Almost 9 in 10 caucus goers say the war in Iraq was a mistake.
| Most Important Issues in Choosing a Candidate, By Candidate Support |
||||||
| Total (%) |
Hillary Clinton (%) |
Barack Obama (%) |
John Edwards (%) |
Bill Richardson (%) |
||
| Position on Iraq War? | 45 | 45 | 50 | 43 | 42 | |
| Being a strong leader? | 31 | 31 | 35 | 26 | 28 | |
| Has the best chance of beating the Republicans in 2008 Presidential election? |
25 | 30 | 24 | 29 | 12 | |
| Position on health care? | 36 | 38 | 42 | 35 | 32 | |
| Supporting economic fairness for all Americans? |
30 | 29 | 25 | 25 | 35 | |
| Being experienced in world affairs? | 19 | 18 | 14 | 21 | 30 | |
| Other | 6 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 10 | |
| No Answer/ Don't know/ None | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
Methodology
This Time Magazine poll was conducted by telephone between August 22-26, 2007 among a random sample of 519 registered voters in Iowa, age 17 and older, likely to attend the 2008 Democratic caucuses. The sample source was a list of registered Democratic and Independent voters in Iowa provided by Voter Contact Services. These registered voters were screened to determine their likelihood of attending the 2008 Iowa Democratic caucuses.
Likely voters included in the sample included those who said they were
- 100% certain that they would attend the Iowa caucuses, OR
- probably going to attend and reported that they had attended a previous Iowa caucus.
The margin of error for the entire sample is approximately +/- 5 percentage points. The margin of error is higher for subgroups. Surveys are subject to other error sources as well, including sampling coverage error, recording error, and respondent error.
Data were weighted to approximate the 2004 Iowa Democratic Caucus "Entrance Polls," conducted January 19, 2004.
Turnout in primary elections and caucuses tends to be low, with polls at this early stage generally overestimating attendance.
The sample included cell phone numbers, which, to the extent SRBI was able to identify them, were dialed manually.
SRBI Public Affairs, a subsidiary of Abt Associates, Inc., designed the survey and conducted all interviewing. The full Time questionnaire and data may be found at: www.srbi.com.
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